Good morning, Everyone.

I can’t tell you what a pleasure it is to be here in Marrakech – at last! What a journey we’ve been on since Tokyo, as individuals, as professionals, for Morocco as a destination, and as the travel industry! 

The Travel Convention has always been a forward-looking event, but – as the Germans say – it’s very comforting, once or twice a year, to get together and forget the old times! 

The fact that we are here at all is testament to the amazing resilience of the travel industry. Of course, there are lessons to be learned from the pandemic, at every level, but I hope the next two days will point us towards 2023 and beyond as we all take stock and shape our businesses for the future.

When we were discussing the theme for this year’s Convention we agreed on ‘Travel’s New Landscape’. But we also debated whether or not we should put a question mark on the end of that title. 

I guess the question in our minds was: what is radically new as we look to the future? and what is, rather, the continuing evolution of a travel industry that has been changing and adapting continuously for the last decade?

When you listen to the news and the conversations around the proverbial water cooler, it does feel as though we are living a moment in history – war on the European continent… a marked shift away from the political centre in many Western democracies… a sudden realisation of how precarious our energy supplies are. 

And yet.. and yet.. history has been going on around us for ever, and some of the changes that have happened almost invisibly may well have a more profound impact in the long term. 

Bill Gates’s Law says that we overestimate the change that will happen in the next two years, and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten years. 

The new channels of distribution opened up by the internet– the power of social media and influencers - the growing awareness of the environmental challenge we all face – these have all come upon us gradually and are now a permanent part of the travel landscape of the future.

And within our workplaces we are all trying to strike the balance between the needs and desires of the individual, and the needs and desires of the team. 

The pandemic may have accelerated these changes, but they were always coming our way.

I hope that the speakers and discussions of the next two days will open our eyes to some of the changes that are ahead of us, and the different ways in which fellow professionals are adapting.

It goes without saying that to get to the medium term we have to get through the short term, and without wishing to relive the pain of the last two years, we have to recognise the very urgent and real challenges that some ABTA Members are still facing. 

Two years of more or less no international travel did untold damage to the industry’s finances, and also to our human capital – the people – the skills – the bedrock culture of the industry – as many were forced to leave to find work elsewhere.

We saw earlier in the summer the real strains that this put upon us – not just the airlines and airports which captured the headlines – but for every tour operator and travel agency as they struggled to deal with new demand and booking changes with very reduced staff. 

And yet, in spite of UK travel restrictions not being lifted until March this year, our Holiday Habits report – launched this morning – shows that over the past year overseas travel reached 70% of the level three years ago. 

We’re not out of this thick wood yet, but I think that we should be proud of the speed with which the travel industry has managed to bounce back operationally.

The current ‘turbulence’ in the financial markets- to use our Chancellor’s nonchalant description – is a real cause of concern for our Members – higher interest rates on top of rising energy bills put a double squeeze on businesses – increased costs just when consumers are tightening their belts.

And of course, many travel businesses have come out of the pandemic with less financial headroom than they went into it, so increased borrowing at higher costs is not an option.

AT ABTA we’ve already made very strong representations to the new Prime Minister and her team, emphasising not just the pains of the travel industry, but also its potential. 

New research that ABTA has commissioned from York Aviation demonstrates that the outbound travel industry accounted for £49bn of Gross Value Added pre-pandemic – supported 720,000 jobs in its extended supply chains – and most significantly for a Government committed to Growth, Growth, Growth – has potential to grow by 15% over the next five years, given the right regulatory and fiscal environment. 

This would outperform the general expectations for the UK economy and help lead the UK’s recovery in the years ahead.

Mr Rees-Mogg, in his new role as Business Secretary, has made clear his intent to have a bonfire of EU-derived regulations, and as his department is responsible for the oversight of the Package Travel Regulations, we can assume that they will be in his sights. 

The pandemic shone a harsh light on the whole system of money flows through the travel industry – how consumers are protected and who ultimately is sitting on the risk when things go wrong. And it’s right that we should look at the system of financial protection to remove inefficiencies and duplication.

But we should proceed with great caution before radically changing a protection system which has served the industry – and its customers – very well through many crises, natural and man-made.

Quite where the Chancellor’s tax plans will end up is still to be determined, but one positive step he could take to help get international travel growing is to freeze the level of Air Passenger Duty. 

Over recent years, APD has increased with inflation, and, given the current economic backdrop, doing so again would add significantly to the costs for customers who are already feeling squeezed. 

The Prime Minister spoke in her conference set-piece about positioning Britain as open to the world, and about the importance of our being globally competitive. At this time, sanctioning substantial increases in APD – already amongst the highest departure taxes anywhere in the world - would send the opposite signal - that Britain is closing for business.

At our last overseas Convention in Tokyo, the big topic of discussion centred on responsible tourism – responsible environmentally and socially. The pandemic may have paused that discussion temporarily, but it is now back on centre stage. 

We’ll be hearing shortly from Deloitte who, together with ABTA and with input from many of our Members, have produced a practical climate change guide specifically for the travel industry. I do urge you to check it out. 

The travel industry is already making positive steps to reduce its carbon impact. But we also need the Government to incentivise the development of low-carbon fuels. The Government’s Growth agenda demands this, and the alternative of simply taxing emissions will thwart their own ambition. 

So, as I peer into next year, what do I see..? I see that the demand for travel has not been dimmed by the pandemic– in fact it may have been intensified. Where perhaps we took for granted unimpeded international travel, we now know what a precious gift that is. 

The demand for travel is strong, but I also think it’s now clear that talking about ‘the’ customer is misleading if not meaningless. 

There are so many customer segments, large and small, defined by taste, behaviour, spending power and many other characteristics, that a single approach to servicing them won’t work. 

Our Holiday Habits research suggests that while roughly 30 percent of people might be reducing their holiday spend next year, around 30 percent anticipate spending more! We’ll be hearing more about some of these customer segments tomorrow.

Fortunately, one thing that all types of traveller seem to have in common, again as evidenced by our research, is a desire to seek assistance from a travel professional whenever arrangements move beyond the most basic.

Meeting this demand requires talented people, of course, and the recruitment challenge that started as a result of the pandemic will certainly continue as the war for talent rages on. 

ABTA ourselves are engaged in social media campaigns to attract young people into the travel industry, but we all have a shared interest in reaching the next generation of travel professionals to convey the excitement and potential of a career in travel.

As we move into next year I think the structure of our industry will continue to evolve, with more businesses electing to become managed branches of a parent travel company – gaining economies of scale and reducing their own regulatory requirements. 

The acceleration of remote working through the pandemic has created a vast and growing number of travel homeworkers. Recruiting, developing and caring for this new workforce will be ongoing challenge – and opportunity – for the travel industry.

I do think that in 2023 there will be renewed focus on how money flows through the travel system. A review of the ATOL scheme is already under way, in addition to the Chancellor’s plans, and I know that many travel companies are looking afresh at their payment terms and conditions.

And, finally, I see us having to battle strong economic headwinds for the next year. But we shouldn’t be daunted: as the philosopher Nietzsche said – ‘That which does not destroy you, makes you stronger’. The travel industry has not been destroyed by COVID-19, and we can face the new landscape with renewed ambition and confidence!