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Will travel still peak this January?
Written by Andy Headington, CEO of Adido.
Towards the end of each year, the travel industry gears up for peaks (or ‘Wave’ if you’re in cruise) in anticipation of big sales and the busiest time of the year for bookings This has been the way of things in travel for many decades but since the end of the pandemic, there has been much talk of travel’s ‘new norms’ pushing less towards peaks and more towards an all year approach to bookings and sales. Will peak in 2025 be a record breaker or will travel brands struggle?
Cyber month changing the pattern?
Listening to some of the speakers at the recent ABTA Travel Trends conference, companies like G Adventures and Kuoni saw big increases in bookings over what I guess we now call Cyber Month (rather than any specific day) which took them both by surprise and reflected one of the biggest sales periods of the year.
Whilst some brands decided to go for ‘cyber sales’ and some didn’t (it was a first for Kuoni), many will have held back going live with their offers until the usual time of year. For those that went for the cyber push, there is a chance that in doing so it just bought forward sales for 2025/2026 from the traditional time of the year that they might’ve got anyway… Maybe. But for many travellers, Christmas will cost as much as ever and as such many will be waiting to see what the credit card statements show in January and how they feel in terms of prospects for the year ahead, before making their final travel plans.
Search patterns over the last three years
We faced similar financial and market challenges a year ago when the talk of peaks being over seemed to be common in the trade press. Looking back over the last three years of data by sector in terms of search volume on Google, it appears that, generally, January is still the busiest month of the year as the table below outlines.
Chart above – heatmap of searches on Google by category over the last three years. The darker the colour, the higher the search volume i.e. dark green is highest search volume while white are the low months. Data collected by Adido, using Google Keywords
Whilst January searches have been high in the last three years, there have been some exceptions in 2022 (which was still on the post lockdown run) and also summer 2024 where we see unusually high search months for cruise (because, well, it’s cruise and it’s STILL very much on an upward trajectory), specialist tours (due to huge northern lights demands) and UK holidays (where last minute searches/trips kicked in).
It’s worthwhile reiterating here that these charts reflect search volume and not booking volumes. Therefore, there may well be a lag in actual bookings, assuming that people who are searching will have an interest in booking at some point.
Many travel brands are expected to push hard on sales messages from Boxing Day and I expect that even for those that don’t increase their messaging in this time. With the whole travel market being more prominent, there will be increased interest across the board for all travel which I predict will lead to a bigger sales too!
The impact of the mortgage fall out
One other final factor that I expect to perhaps play a role in certain sectors of travel will be mortgage rates. For many, 2025 will be the last year they have ‘extra’ funds available to spend on upgrading their holidays before higher interest rates kick in, reducing any disposable income and limiting spending opportunity.
Source – Knight Frank
With nearly a million people facing this scenario in 2025 and another near-million in 2026, many will see this as the last chance to ‘go big’ before they have to ‘stay home’. For any travel business targeting those in perhaps an age group between 30-60 where there are more likely large monthly payments to be made for mortgages, it’s going to perhaps push them to look for more value from their holidays and/or choose new destinations, types of holiday or when they book.
How to ride the peak
If the above it true and we see January being big, what should travel companies do?
It makes sense to push your media budgets as much as you can in January to ensure that you’re visible when travellers are most likely to be in market and searching for deals. Showcase your best offers and ensure that you’re doing as much as you to sell your value – both financially and through ‘extras’ that are often overlooked (transfers, check ins, luggage allowances, food/beverage promotions, etc.) to maximise the benefits of your products. You’ve worked hard to get people to your website so make it easy for them to buy!
Whatever happens, it’s worthwhile remembering that if traffic is up during January but sales don’t quite meet your expectations, it might take another few weeks for sales to come through. Don’t write off peaks traffic if it doesn’t quite meet your expectations in the first month - it’s worthwhile pushing with remarketing and email to try and squeeze as much as you can over February and March to try and close out what I expect to be a great quarter for all travel brands!
I look forward to seeing what happens next!
Adido is committed to harnessing data to take your digital strategy to the next level, working with companies that are looking to grow by applying data-driven marketing techniques and being smart with technology. Find out more about Adido here.